Turkey Currency Volatility: 3-Month Risk Assessment
High inflation and political uncertainty continue to fuel Turkish Lira volatility, posing significant risks for exporters and investors.
D
Dr. Ayşe Yılmaz
Published on September 5, 2024
High-Risk Outlook
Our model places the Turkish Lira (TRY) in the "high-risk" category for the next three months, with a potential for 15-20% swings against the US dollar.
Key Drivers
- Inflation: Persistently high inflation, currently at an annualized rate of over 60%.
- Central Bank Policy: Uncertainty surrounding future interest rate decisions.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing regional conflicts impacting investor sentiment.