China's $66 Billion Eurasia Investment Surge: A Strategic Shift from Resources to Manufacturing and Energy

In 2025, China's cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) in Eurasia hit a record $66.1 billion—an 80% increase from $37.3 billion a decade earlier, with a 13% jump in just the past year. But the headline number conceals a deeper transformation. Beneath the growth lies a deliberate restructuring: manufacturing and energy projects now account for 34% of the total portfolio, double their share from 2016, while raw materials have slipped from dominance. Central Asia, led by Uzbekistan’s fivefold investment leap to $10.7 billion, has become the new frontier. With 25 new projects launched in a single year and greenfield investments rising to 60% of the total stock, this is not merely a capital flow—it is a reindustrialization of the Eurasian heartland, offering supply chain opportunities for investors watching the Belt and Road evolve.

[IMAGE: A futuristic 3D map of Eurasia with glowing red and gold investment lines radiating from China into Central Asia, overlaid with icons of solar panels, factory buildings, and cargo trains. No text, no watermark. High contrast, financial magazine style.]

The Record Numbers: Context and Surprises

China’s accumulated FDI in Eurasia reached $66.1 billion in 2025, up from $37.3 billion in 2016—an 80% increase that accelerated sharply in the last 12 months. Central Asia alone accounts for nearly $36 billion, or 55% of the total. Yet the real surprise is Uzbekistan: its Chinese investment stock has ballooned from $2.1 billion to $10.7 billion in five years—a fivefold leap—now equaling Kazakhstan’s $11.4 billion. Kazakhstan’s growth, by contrast, has been moderate, rising only modestly from $10.3 billion to $11.4 billion over the same period.

This divergence points to a deliberate strategic pivot by Beijing. While Kazakhstan remains a significant recipient, its slower pace suggests China is diversifying away from reliance on a single Central Asian partner. Mongolia, meanwhile, remains a mineral outlier: 68% of its Chinese FDI is concentrated in metal ore mining. Russia, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, and other Eurasian states round out the portfolio, but the bulk of new money is flowing into countries with more favorable investment climates and manufacturing potential.

“The overall trajectory shows a clear geographic spread,” says Alexander Zaboev, an analyst specializing in Eurasian investment flows at the Astana International Financial Centre. “China is not just increasing the volume of its investment—it is actively rebalancing where and how that money is deployed.”

[IMAGE: Bar chart comparing 2016 vs 2025 accumulated FDI by country (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Russia, and others). X-axis: Country; Y-axis: Billion USD. Two bars per country: 2016 (lighter shade) and 2025 (darker shade).]

Sectoral Transformation: From Commodities to Complex Value Chains

For most of the past decade, Chinese FDI in Eurasia was dominated by raw materials—minerals, metals, and hydrocarbons. That picture has changed dramatically. According to Aidos Omarov, a policy advisor on China–Central Asia economic relations, manufacturing and energy now account for 34% of China’s accumulated investment in the region, up from 17% a decade ago. Together with raw materials, these three sectors make up 85% of the total.

The shift is visible in newly announced projects across Central Asia. In Kazakhstan, a $1.5 billion corn processing plant by China’s Fufeng Group is under construction, alongside a $1.2 billion metallurgical plant and a $600 million cotton-textile cluster—all classified as manufacturing. These ventures signal a transition from extracting raw commodities to processing them locally, creating higher-value supply chains.

In the energy sector, the transformation is equally pronounced. Uzbekistan has approved two 250 MW solar plants totaling $500 million, financed by Chinese developers, plus a $200 million industrial zone and a $140 million waste-to-energy plant. These projects shift the emphasis from fossil fuel extraction to renewable energy generation and industrial infrastructure.

The Kyrgyz Republic, meanwhile, is hosting a $430 million coal logistics center—a hybrid approach that leverages existing fossil fuel resources but with significant infrastructure upgrades. This aligns with China’s own industrial relocation and what analysts call “Belt and Road 2.0”: moving from basic infrastructure construction to deeper capacity cooperation, including technology transfer and local manufacturing.

[IMAGE: Infographic showing two pie charts side by side. Left: sector share of Chinese FDI in Central Asia (circa 2016) with raw materials 70%, manufacturing+energy 17%, others 13%. Right: current (2025) with manufacturing+energy 34%, raw materials 51%, others 15%. Icons for factory, solar panel, mining truck.]

Uzbekistan: The New Crown Jewel of Chinese FDI in Eurasia

Uzbekistan’s rise from just 1% of China’s Eurasian investment to 16% is the most dramatic geographic shift in the data. Five years ago, it was a minor destination; today it rivals Kazakhstan in total stock. The driving forces are threefold: political reforms under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, a steadily improving business climate, and China’s strategic interest in building a manufacturing hub that can serve Central Asia and beyond.

Concrete evidence of this boom includes China Energy’s financing of three solar plants in Uzbekistan, with a combined investment of approximately $2 billion. Separately, a $200 million Uzbek-Chinese industrial zone is taking shape near Tashkent, designed to host light manufacturing, electronics assembly, and textile processing. The $10.7 billion figure encompasses both existing stock and new capital commitments, and greenfield projects now make up 60% of the country’s inbound Chinese FDI—a sign that investors are building from the ground up rather than acquiring existing assets.

“Uzbekistan has become the test case for China’s new model of engagement in Central Asia,” says a senior economist at the Asian Development Bank’s regional office. “It offers a combination of political stability, a large young workforce, and growing market access that Kazakhstan, with its more mature economy, no longer provides as openly.”

For global investors watching the Eurasia investment opportunity watch, Uzbekistan’s trajectory is instructive. The country’s fivefold investment jump has created new demand for machinery, logistics services, and industrial equipment—all of which feed into the broader Belt and Road supply chains. Chinese companies are not only investing capital but also relocating production lines, creating a ripple effect for suppliers and service providers across the region.

Implications for Supply Chains and the Next Phase

The structural shift from raw materials to manufacturing and energy has profound implications for supply chain dynamics. As Chinese FDI flows into processing plants, solar farms, and industrial zones, the region is becoming an integrated part of global production networks. Central Asia manufacturing is no longer a niche phrase—it is a measurable trend, with Uzbekistan alone hosting over a dozen new factories funded by Chinese capital in the past two years.

Greenfield investments, now representing 60% of the total portfolio, are particularly important. Unlike acquisitions, greenfield projects create new physical assets—factories, power plants, logistics hubs—that lock in long-term supply chain relationships. This trend is most visible in the energy transition: solar and waste-to-energy plants financed by China are not just power generation assets; they are also channels for Chinese solar panel exports, battery storage systems, and grid equipment.

Meanwhile, the growing role of Uzbekistan investment boom has reshaped regional trade flows. The country’s geographic position—bordering Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan—makes it a natural logistics hub. Chinese companies are using Uzbekistan as a base to reach markets in South Asia and the Middle East, bypassing longer routes through Russia.

Even traditional sectors are evolving. Mongolia’s mineral-heavy portfolio (68% in metal ore mining) still dwarfs other categories there, but even in Mongolia, new Chinese investment is trickling into processing facilities. A $300 million copper concentrate plant near the Oyu Tolgoi mine, partly financed by Chinese banks, represents an attempt to add value before export.

What the Data Means for Investors

For those monitoring the Chinese FDI landscape in Eurasia, three takeaways stand out. First, the volume is real and growing: $66.1 billion in accumulated stock, with a 13% year-over-year increase, demonstrates sustained commitment. Second, the sectoral composition is shifting toward higher-value activities, creating opportunities in equipment supply, engineering services, and technology licensing. Third, the geographic center of gravity is moving south and west—toward Uzbekistan, but also toward the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, where new projects are emerging at a brisk pace.

“We are seeing the early stages of a supply chain realignment that could reshape Central Asia for decades,” says Zaboev. “Investors who understand the direction of this capital—from raw materials to manufacturing, from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan—will be better positioned to capture the next wave.”

The Belt and Road Initiative has entered a new phase, no longer defined by roads and railways alone, but by the factories, energy plants, and industrial zones that those roads enable. With 25 new projects launched in just one year and a clear pivot toward manufacturing, the Eurasian investment surge is more than a headline—it is a blueprint for the region’s economic future.

[IMAGE: A stylized timeline graphic showing key milestones: 2016 (raw materials dominate, $37.3B), 2020 (Uzbekistan starts rising, $5.2B), 2025 (manufacturing+energy 34%, total $66.1B). Arrows connecting milestone to major project examples: Fufeng corn plant, China Energy solar parks, Uzbek-Chinese industrial zone.]