2026 Investment Trends and the Four Themes Shaping Eurasian Markets

Artificial intelligence capital expenditure, the widening case for non-US equities, a softer dollar and the return of active industrial policy are reframing capital allocation decisions from the Caspian to Central Europe

Executive Summary

A review of institutional investment outlooks for 2026, as synthesised by Forbes contributor Garth Friesen after examining 18 separate reports, identifies four themes that recur across the major houses: continued confidence in artificial intelligence (AI) spending, a broadened case for non-US equity markets, expectations of a structurally weaker US dollar, and a more prominent role for governments in strategic sectors.

These are global themes, but they do not land evenly. For the economies of Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia, Türkiye, Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans and the Caspian basin, the four themes intersect with infrastructure bottlenecks, energy balances, trade corridor development and industrial policy in ways that are more consequential than the headline consensus suggests.

Three implications stand out. First, AI-related electricity demand is becoming an energy and utilities investment story as much as a technology story, which raises the strategic value of power generation, grid capacity and transmission links across the region. Second, the narrowing of the US-versus-rest earnings growth gap gives institutional investors a structural reason to examine Eurasian equity and credit markets they have historically underweighted. Third, active industrial policy — expressed through tariffs, subsidies and direct investment — is increasingly the decisive variable in where semiconductor, clean energy, critical minerals and defence-adjacent manufacturing capacity is sited.

The consensus is not a forecast. As the Forbes analysis notes, understanding what the market collectively expects is useful primarily because it helps identify where surprises would be most disruptive.

Introduction

Investment outlooks are consensus documents. They reveal what large asset managers, banks and research houses believe will drive returns in the year ahead, and in doing so they establish the baseline against which surprises are measured.

The 2026 cycle has produced an unusually coherent set of expectations. After several years in which US equity market dominance was the organising fact of global portfolio construction, the analytical centre of gravity has shifted toward geographic diversification, policy-driven capital allocation and the physical infrastructure required to support computation at scale.

That shift matters disproportionately to Eurasia. The region contains a large share of the world's emerging and frontier industrial capacity, several of the trade corridors that connect European and Asian supply chains, and a set of energy markets whose fortunes are tied to both fossil fuel demand and the build-out of low-carbon generation. The themes shaping 2026 portfolios are, in effect, themes shaping Eurasian investment.

Main Analysis

Theme one: AI capital expenditure is being treated as infrastructure, not speculation

Several 2026 outlooks draw a distinction between the current AI investment cycle and the dot-com episode. Research cited from Barclays and Morgan Stanley emphasises that the companies leading the current build-out are profitable and cash-generative, in contrast to the speculative, frequently loss-making firms that defined the earlier period.

Hyperscaler capital expenditure is expected to continue, with a growing share directed toward securing energy supply. Data centres that train and run advanced AI models are exceptionally power-intensive. Goldman Sachs research cited in the Forbes analysis forecasts that data centre power demand will grow by more than 175% by 2030 relative to 2023 levels, which converts AI from a pure technology theme into a long-duration energy and utilities infrastructure theme.

That framing is directly relevant to Eurasian economies with surplus generation capacity, underused transmission infrastructure or credible renewable resource endowments. It also sharpens the competition for grid connection rights, land, water and skilled electrical engineering labour — the practical constraints on data centre development that rarely feature in technology narratives but determine project timelines.

Fidelity semiconductor analyst Jonathan Tseng, quoted in the outlook, addressed scepticism about returns on the infrastructure spend by arguing that AI models continue to improve and productisation is proceeding rapidly, and that dismissing the technology on the basis of older data and older models misreads the trajectory.

Theme two: The case for non-US equities has become mainstream

A second recurring theme is the improved outlook for non-US equity markets. After years in which US markets outperformed, several firms describe a structural narrowing of the performance gap, supported by positive nominal growth, AI-related capital spending, fiscal stimulus and shareholder-friendly policy.

Europe features prominently. Germany is described as embarking on significant fiscal expansion, with plans for heavy investment in infrastructure and defence. After roughly three years of stagnant earnings, corporate profit growth across Europe is expected to accelerate in 2026 according to most of the firms reviewed. Japan is cited for a pro-growth government agenda combined with corporate governance reforms aimed at shareholder value. Emerging markets are described as increasingly attractive on improving fundamentals, valuation and policy support.

J.P. Morgan's 2026 outlook, quoted in the analysis, frames the shift succinctly: the US-versus-rest-of-world earnings growth gap has narrowed as structural changes overseas bear fruit, and strong international equity returns have further room to run.

For Eurasian markets, this is a question of capital allocation rather than sentiment. Improved relative earnings prospects matter to portfolio flows only if investors can access the exposure, which depends on index inclusion, market liquidity, settlement infrastructure and the depth of local institutional investor bases.

Theme three: A softer dollar and the reallocation of global capital

A broad consensus points toward a structurally weaker US dollar in 2026. The drivers identified are expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, which narrow the interest rate differential that has supported the currency; a global reallocation of capital toward more attractive international opportunities; and rising US fiscal concerns, including government debt levels that weigh on the dollar's long-term appeal as the primary reserve currency.

If the trend materialises, it functions as a tailwind for international assets, increasing the dollar value of returns on foreign investments. For borrowers in emerging and frontier Eurasian markets, dollar weakness traditionally eases external debt service and import costs, though the transmission is neither automatic nor uniform. For commodity exporters, the effect on pricing is more ambiguous, since most energy and metals contracts are still denominated in dollars.

Theme four: The return of active government

Several outlooks note that governments will play a more prominent role in the economy in 2026 than in recent years. Three channels are identified.

Industrial policy is the most visible. Governments are using tariffs, subsidies and direct investment to support sectors deemed critical to national security, including semiconductors, clean energy and rare earth elements, with the stated aim of improving supply chain resilience.

Massive deficits form a second channel, driven by defence spending commitments, ageing demographics and a greater willingness to use fiscal stimulus to manage economic cycles.

Financial repression is the third. Policies that keep interest rates artificially low relative to inflation help governments manage high debt loads; by structuring regulation to make government bonds attractive to banks and pension funds, such policies effectively channel private savings toward public deficits.

The practical consequence is a set of policy-driven opportunities in defence, infrastructure and energy technology tied to national strategic priorities. For investors, the implication is that policy risk and policy opportunity are now inseparable from sector allocation decisions.

Business Impact

For corporate strategy, the four themes translate into identifiable operational pressures.

Capital allocation decisions increasingly require an assessment of policy durability. A manufacturing investment justified partly by subsidy or tariff protection carries a different risk profile than one justified by underlying cost competitiveness, and the difference becomes material over a five-year horizon.

Supply chain design is being reshaped by the same forces. Companies operating across Eurasian corridors face pressure to build redundancy into logistics networks, dual-source critical components, and locate final assembly closer to end markets. This raises the strategic value of industrial parks, free zones and multimodal terminals — and raises the cost of poorly connected sites.

Energy access is emerging as a competitiveness variable rather than a cost line. For manufacturers, technology firms and logistics operators alike, the availability of reliable, competitively priced power is increasingly a site-selection factor. Regions with surplus generation and functioning transmission networks hold an advantage; those with constrained grids face a measurable disadvantage in attracting power-intensive investment.

On the capital markets side, a weaker dollar and a narrowing earnings growth gap improve the relative attractiveness of non-US assets, but the benefit accrues unevenly. Markets with credible disclosure standards, functioning settlement infrastructure and liquid benchmarks are better positioned to capture reallocated flows. Employment effects follow investment: industrial policy directs capital toward sectors with high skill requirements, which in turn intensifies competition for technical labour.

Regional Perspective

For the European Union, the central issue is execution. Fiscal expansion in Germany and defence-related spending commitments across member states create demand for construction, engineering and industrial capacity, with spillover into Central and Eastern European supply chains. EU industrial policy instruments — state aid frameworks, the carbon border mechanism, critical raw materials legislation — will shape where that capacity is located.

Türkiye occupies a distinctive position. Its manufacturing base, customs union relationship with the EU and geographic position between European and Asian markets make it a candidate beneficiary of supply chain diversification, while its exposure to external financing conditions makes dollar trends particularly consequential.

In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Middle Corridor and related transit routes are the primary channel through which global trade reorganisation reaches local economies. Investment in rail capacity, port handling, border infrastructure and customs modernisation determines whether transit volumes convert into durable logistics revenue or remain a narrow pass-through.

The Caspian region sits at the intersection of energy investment and corridor development. AI-driven electricity demand strengthens the global case for energy infrastructure investment, but the region's ability to attract it depends on grid interconnection, regulatory predictability and the availability of long-term offtake arrangements.

The Western Balkans and Eastern Europe face a different challenge. Their proximity to EU markets and lower cost bases make them candidates for industrial relocation, but labour shortages, energy market integration gaps and infrastructure deficits constrain how much investment they can absorb.

Across all of these geographies, the common variable is institutional credibility. Capital reallocated away from US assets still flows toward markets where property rights, contract enforcement and regulatory stability are reasonably predictable.

Future Outlook

Over the next three to five years, several developments appear likely.

Regional connectivity investment will continue to be justified primarily on resilience grounds rather than pure cost-efficiency. Corridor projects that connect the Caspian, Caucasus and European networks will advance unevenly, shaped by financing availability and the speed of border and customs reform.

AI-related infrastructure demand will keep pressure on electricity systems. The 175% growth forecast cited by Goldman Sachs implies sustained investment in generation, transmission and grid management — a multi-year capital programme that will draw in utilities, engineering firms and private infrastructure capital.

Industrial policy will remain a decisive factor in manufacturing location. Semiconductors, clean energy equipment, critical minerals processing and defence-adjacent production will continue to receive policy support, with the competitive advantage accruing to jurisdictions that can combine subsidies with reliable infrastructure and skilled labour.

Digital economy investment will broaden beyond data centres. Cloud capacity, cybersecurity, enterprise software adoption and digital government services are likely to attract increasing shares of both public and private capital as governments treat digital infrastructure as strategic.

Capital markets development will determine how much of the global reallocation Eurasia captures. Deepening local bond markets, improving corporate disclosure and expanding institutional investor bases are slower-moving reforms, but they are the mechanisms through which improved sentiment converts into durable financing.

The principal risk to this outlook is that the consensus is wrong. If US earnings growth reaccelerates, if the dollar strengthens rather than weakens, or if AI capital expenditure slows sharply, the reallocation thesis weakens and capital returns to familiar markets. The Forbes analysis makes this point explicitly: consensus expectations are most useful as a benchmark for identifying what would constitute a genuine surprise.

Conclusion

The four themes framing 2026 investment outlooks are not equally weighted, and none is guaranteed. But together they describe a shift in how global capital is likely to be allocated: toward infrastructure with long asset lives, toward markets outside the United States, toward sectors where government policy is an active determinant of returns.

Eurasia's position within that shift is neither assured nor marginal. The region offers energy capacity, transit geography, industrial depth and a large pool of technical talent. Whether those attributes translate into investment depends on factors that no investment outlook can forecast with confidence — the pace of infrastructure delivery, the coherence of policy frameworks, and the willingness of institutions to absorb capital at scale.

For business leaders, investors and policymakers, the practical task is the same: to distinguish between themes that will persist through a full cycle and narratives that will not survive contact with execution.

Key Takeaways

• Four themes dominate institutional 2026 outlooks: sustained AI capital expenditure, a broadened case for non-US equities, expectations of a structurally weaker dollar, and a larger role for government in strategic industries.
• The AI investment cycle is increasingly described as an infrastructure revolution rather than a speculative bubble, with data centre power demand forecast by Goldman Sachs to grow more than 175% by 2030 versus 2023 levels.
• Germany's fiscal expansion, Japan's governance reforms and improving emerging-market fundamentals underpin the argument for geographic diversification away from US assets.
• A softer dollar would ease external financing conditions for emerging Eurasian economies while complicating the pricing picture for dollar-denominated commodity exports.
• Active industrial policy is becoming a primary determinant of where semiconductor, clean energy, critical minerals and defence-adjacent capacity is located.
• For Eurasia, the binding constraints are execution-related: grid capacity, corridor infrastructure, customs modernisation and institutional credibility rather than access to capital per se.
• The consensus itself is the risk benchmark — outcomes that diverge from it, in either direction, are what will drive volatility in 2026.

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Sources

• Forbes, "2026 Investment Trends And The Four Themes Driving Markets," Garth Friesen: https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfriesen/2025/11/30/2026-investment-trends-and-the-four-themes-driving-markets/
• Goldman Sachs Research, data centre power demand analysis (referenced in the Forbes article): https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/data-center-power-demand-the-6-ps-driving-growth-and-constraints
• Fidelity International, 2026 Investment Outlook (referenced in the Forbes article): https://www.fidelityinternational.com/static/master/media/pdf/outlook/Fidelity-International-Outlook-2026.pdf
• J.P. Morgan Asset Management, 2026 Year-Ahead Investment Outlook (referenced in the Forbes article): https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/2026%20Year-Ahead%20Investment%20Outlook.pdf